* Job losses carries over to currencies...
* BLS does it again!
* ECB leaves rates unchanged...
* Thoughts on the 4th....
And Now... Today's Analysis!
A Jobs Jamboree Debacle!
It certainly looks like all those sounding the "all
clear horn" have some egg on their collective faces this morning, eh? The
egg thrower is the Jobs Jamboree that took place yesterday... Recall that I
told you about how the forecasters had job losses pinned at -365,000? Well, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) reported job losses to be -467,000, which is far worse than that rose
colored glasses -365,000... But wait! If you act now, we'll double the order!
OK, I'm just having some fun with infomercials... But what I'm getting at is
the fact that the BLS was at it again folks! The BLS added 185,000 jobs to that
-467,000! Again... The BLS seems to believe that there are businesses starting
up in the depths of a recession that would amount to 185,000 new jobs being
created! Really? Come on... Of that 185,000 jobs the BLS added, 31,000 were
allocated to Construction Jobs... Which may or may not have happened, but
wouldn't it be better to wait-n-see, without affecting the markets this way?
OK... So... The "actual" real number was -652,000... I say that
because, at sometime in the dark of night, when no one is paying attention, the
BLS will make an adjustment to the overall unemployed number, and take all
these jobs they created out of thin air, and remove them from the overall
number... They will admit they were wrong, but not in public! Hey! I didn't
want to be in public, you threw me out in public!
So... As I stated yesterday, this has been the "lost decade" for jobs
in the U.S. We now have approximately the same amount of people with jobs now
that we had in May of 2000...
All the flag wavers for the recession being over have gone back to their padded
rooms! This is why I wanted so badly for currencies to drop the link with
stocks, because I truly feared a stock sell off that would be very bad.... I
know, I know, it hasn't happened yet, but it could be happening right now
before our eyes!
All this government intervention is choking the patient they were trying to
heal! Speaking of which, I was reading this new weekly e-letter that comes to
me called, "Conversations With Casey" which, is
Doug Casey,
and old friend of ours here at EverBank World Markets... These are very
interesting conversations, as Doug takes a question and just hammers home his
thoughts... Well... Since I was mentioning the Government Intervention, it
reminded me of his last letter, when he touched on this subject... Let's listen
in to what Doug Casey...
"The point I'm making is this: You've heard the old saying that history
doesn't repeat, but it rhymes? I'm afraid that for many reasons, the government
is doing just about everything possible to push the economy over the edge.
First of all, the government is much more powerful than in the 1930s.
They are going to make exactly the same mistakes - but bigger this time.
They are going to wind up destroying the currency.
It's probable that Americans will end up in a war, for a number of reasons.
What we're looking at is something that's going to be long, dismal, and really
unpleasant - much worse than what happened in the '30s and '40s."
Well... All this rot on the unemployment data's vine, was not good for the
currencies, and precious metals. This "new revelation" that the U.S. economy
is still in shambles, caused the risk takers to head for the hills... Take
profits and retreat to fight another battle on another day. The currency
massacre at the hands of the Jobs Jamboree was widespread... I don't think I
saw A currency that survived....
The good news for currency holders though is the fact that while every currency
was sold, the kingpin, Big Dog, euro held on to the 1.40 handle... Of course
now that I've said that, it will fall below 1.40 for sure! The other thing
going on in the overnight markets is the fact that the high yielders which saw
the most selling yesterday, were able to recoup about 1/2 of their losses in
the overnight trading.
The euro was supported somewhat by the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting
where interest rates remained unchanged, and ECB President Trichet, gave no
indication that rates would be moving lower any time in the near future.
Trichet also tried to stir the banks in the Eurozone to "play their part in
generating an economic recovery"... How would that do that, you ask?
Well... Trichet pointed to the 442 Billion euros that the ECB made available
for the next 12 months to Eurozone Banks back in June (reported here of
course!) and believes that amount to be all that's needed... So... No more rate
cuts... No more stimulus... Make it work darn it!
Woops! There it goes... I just looked over at the currency screen, and saw the
euro slip below 1.40! Told you I would jinx it!
So... With the U.S. stock market closed today, the markets will be paper thin once
London closes their books and heads to
the pubs... Wild swings can occur during these pre-holiday, Friday afternoons,
when the currencies won't pick up again until Sunday night, when Japan come
back online...
Speaking of the stock market... Yesterday's Jobs Jamboree caused some problems
for stocks too, driving the S&P
500 down to its third-straight weekly loss.
I think that the Gov't has forgotten that the Constitution is about WE THE
PEOPLE! In case you've forgotten:
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union,
establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense,
promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves
and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Currencies today 7/3/09: A$ .7980, kiwi .6325, C$ .8640, euro 1.3990, sterling
1.6335, Swiss .9195, rand 7.9550, krone 6.4430, SEK 7.8190, forint 194.25,
zloty 3.1270, koruna 18.5230, yen 96, sing 1.4540, HKD 7.75, INR 47.90, China 6.8320, pesos
13.27, BRL 1.9555, dollar index 80.35 Oil $66.50, 10-year 3.50%, Silver $13.52,
and Gold... $932.10